Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Wilt versus Russell: Bill Simmons Weighs In, Part One

...which of course means that I weigh in on Bill's weigh in.

“Let’s never mention the supporting cast card again with Russell and Chamberlain. Thank you.”
-Bill Simmons, The Book of Basketball, p. 65

     It’s not hard to imagine what this would sound like if spoken aloud: catty and snide, with a tone of voice suggesting that the case is airtight, the argument impervious to challenge. But one might forgive Simmons’ gloating if his chapter on Russell vs. Chamberlain wasn’t one of the most poorly disguised pieces of propaganda I’ve ever read.
     To get to Simmons’ argument in chapter two of TBOB, one has to sift through an awful lot of irrelevant details posing as supporting facts. Bill’s attempt to muddy the waters is surprising, considering that it comes on the heels of his claim, “…if we are arguing about the greatest debate in NBA history – Bill Russell or Wilt Chamberlain – I can prove Russell was better.” I would think that a straightforward presentation of the facts would be the only step necessary to prove that claim, but let’s look at what Bill does. I’ll call these “Simmons’ Steps to Subterfuge”.

SIMMONS’ STEP ONE: FRAME ISSUE WITH NEGATIVE EMOTION

     Before Bill debunks what he calls “the six most common myths of the Chamberlain-Russell debate” , he begins by comparing Wilt’s supporters to OJ Simpson’s defense team. He explains how, in order to win acquittal, team OJ reprehensibly exploited America’s racial divide to shift the focus away from the evidence. He’s correct in that it was a disgusting tactic, but what does this have to do with Wilt?
     It doesn’t. But by selecting the OJ trial as an analogue, Bill is attempting to frame the issue negatively. How could those bastards set OJ free? And how could these other bastards think a two-time champion was a better player than an eleven-time champion? That’s the mindset Bill wants the reader in before he dips into the facts. It seems to me that if Bill’s argument is so very strong, there’s no need to do this. But he did, and then he went on to step two…

SIMMONS’ STEP TWO: GLOSS OVER RELEVANT FACTS

     The first myth Bill Simmons looks to debunk is that Bill Russell had a better supporting cast than Wilt did. Most port-casual NBA fans know that Bill Russell’s Celtics teams were usually loaded with Hall-of-Famers, so what evidence did Bill reveal to counter this?
     The most logical way, I would think, to look at the supporting casts of each man is to look at the rosters of each man’s team in the seasons they played simultaneously – from the 1959-60 season to the 1968-69 season. I mean, this is Wilt vs. Russell, right? Bill Simmons did not do this. Simmons began with Russell’s rookie year, which happened three seasons before Wilt’s. Was there a good reason for doing this? Let’s let Bill explain:

               …the supporting cast card works with Russell and Wilt only if
               we can prove that the talent disparity was not relatively equal.
              Right off the bat, it’s almost impossible because the NBA didn’t
              expand to ten teams until 1967, giving everyone a good supporting
              cast (even the crummy teams).

     Bill seems to have a lot of faith in the process by which teams coached, scouted, and developed basketball players in the late 1950’s. I mean, sure – the 96 or so NBA players in 1956 were the best in the world - in a still very primitive NBA. The shot clock had only been around for two years. This was only nine years after Jackie Robinson, so we’re not exactly talking about a fully integrated sport yet. In fact, Russell would suffer his only NBA Finals loss against the last all-white NBA championship team in his second season, 1958. The NBA was about to kick off its 11th season of play in 1956. So to state definitively that every team had good players just because the league was small – well, that’s asking a lot. Back in that era, teams didn’t carry a GM or assistant coaches. Sometimes the owner coached the team. I don’t believe that there were a whole lot of international players playing in the 1950s. I think it’s more than reasonable to assume that we hadn’t found a good many players back then.
     If the NBA shrunk to eight franchises now, then yes – we’d have some stacked teams. We know how to identify, develop, and utilize basketball talent. We have access to players all around the world. We can find this information in seconds. We have no trepidations about their ethnicity. In other words, we live today in exactly the opposite world, basketball-wise, than we did in 1956.
     Before he gets to Wilt, Simmons gives some quick recaps to NBA post-seasons from 1957, 58, and 59, leaving a trail of fallacies along the way:

1957: "Since Boston won Game 7 [over St. Louis] in double OT, it’s safe to say these two teams were equally talented."

That doesn’t seem so safe to me.

     First of all, the outcome of a series can be unpredictable. Inferior teams have swept superior teams. Series which looked beforehand to be a walkover sometimes turn out to be highly competitive. A series going seven games doesn’t mean that the two teams were even – they just played even.

Let’s review the 1956-57 standings:



     St. Louis finished 10 games back of Boston and two games under .500. Their Point Differential was negative. Meanwhile, Boston played basically the same schedule and won over 60% of their games. (In the regular season, St. Louis and Boston played nine times; Boston won seven) They won each game by over two possessions. Am I really supposed to believe these two teams have the same amount of talent?
     You see, Simmons won’t present all this because the facts don’t fit his assertion. To bolster this assertion, Simmons runs down the key players on each roster:

               Boston has two stud guards in their prime (Bill Sharman and ’57 MVP
               Bob Cousy) and three terrific rookies (Russell, Heinsohn, and Frank
               Ramsey), while St. Louis has Bob Pettit (two-time MVP), Macauley
               (Hall of Famer), and Slater Martin (Hall of Famer, second-team All-
               NBA that season), as well as Charlie Share, Jack Coleman, and Jack
               McMahon (three highly-regarded role players).

1) Bob Pettit was not a two-time MVP when the series was played.
2) Tommy Heinsohn wasn’t just a terrific rookie; he was the 1957 Rookie of the Year
3) Who regarded Share, Coleman, and McMahon so highly? Simmons just puts this out there and that’s the end of it?

     You see, one way to make the talent look more even is to withhold and omit certain information. You might notice that while Boston has an MVP, St. Louis has a two-time MVP, an All-NBA second-teamer, and two Hall-of-Famers! Wow, now that’s a loaded team! Simmons might have mentioned that St. Louis has rookie and future Hall-of-Famer Cliff Hagan on the roster, but Bill has to make these teams look even; St. Louis might look too good if we mention him. Hagan actually didn’t play a lot during the season but was fourth in Hawks’ minutes played during St. Louis’ playoffs.
     If you want to look backward or forward, Boston’s roster was significantly more talented than the St. Louis roster. Sure, the talent is about even at the top of the rosters, but Boston’s depth is impressive:


     So let’s match ‘em up. HOF big man? Pettit and Russell. HOF scoring forward? Heinsohn and Macauley. HOF point? Cousy and Martin. HOF swingman? Hagan and Ramsey. If you look at the table above, together with this rundown St. Louis looks to have as much talent as Boston. The problem here is that Boston had three more Hall-of-Fame players on its roster. Now I know Jack Coleman, Jack McMahon, and Charlie Share were highly regarded and all, but Bill Sharman, Andy Phillip, and Arnie Risen were much more highly regarded. Let’s do another table:


In the 1956-57 season, Boston played a total of 17,380 player-minutes. 68.1% of those minutes were played by Hall of Famers.
In the 1956-57 season, St. Louis played a total of 16,788 player-minutes. 47.8% of those minutes were played by Hall of Famers.

     Back to that seventh game. One could argue that depth becomes less of an issue during the playoffs as coaches go with their top six, maybe seven guys. With the top of both rosters playing most of the minutes, the teams are more even, hence the seven games. This is possible. What is also possible is that there may have been another reason for a seven-game outcome. I now yield the floor to John Vanak, former NBA referee who began his officiating career in 1962 – five years after the NBA Finals we are discussing:

               Where officials made a few extra bucks was the playoffs. Again, you
               wanted as many games as possible. Hey, we pulled for every series
               to go the full seven. I’m not saying officials threw games to keep the
               series alive, but I do think it was a good idea when they finally
               changed to paying guys a flat fee for the playoffs.

Yeah, that sounds like a pretty good idea.

     I'd like to apologize on Bill Simmons' behalf. In a chapter on Wilt vs. Russell, he's got us talking about the 1956-57 season. (Wilt was at Kansas at the time) But it's important to take a look at all the little tricks in Simmons' bag. As I will show in greater detail later, he is discussing the pre-Wilt seasons in order to establish his credibility. I'm breaking this all down to show that his credibility is, at the very least, suspect.

Part two Thursday.

9 comments:

  1. Nice. I like how you point where Bill just throws in the "highly regarded" label as if this isn't any more than opinion. Even if they were highly regarded, were they more highly regarded than a couple of Hall of Fame players? Doubt it.

    I also happen to think a good start is looking at the years they both played simultaneously. The first thing Bill wants to do in order to convince us is to have us by in to a false or potentially inaccurate assumption. Once you have bought into that, it easily leads to the conclusion he wants you to be led to.

    Bill knows better than to assume two teams are close and that's why it was a 7 game series. How many times has he (rightfully) pointed out where it seems NBA officials are making calls to get one certain team a win?

    Even after I read Bill's defense of Russell and his supporting cast, I still found it hard to buy it was true.

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  2. Thanks for the comment, Ben. This process is frustrating (though enjoyable on a certain level) because I've spent/am spending a lot of time on things that seem simple and obvious, but BS has so much goodwill in the bank with his audience that no one is especially willing to look critically at his work. He's like the popular kid in junior high: everything just seems to go his way.

    The main reason I started bshoops is because I couldn't find a substantive negative review of an entertaining but seriously flawed book. And this is what bothers me: by committing to a book like this, BS was obligated to put his analyst's hat on, dial down the humor, and leave his biases at the door. Instead, we just got more of the same: strippers, alpha dogs, House, Jabaal Abdul-Simmons, etc. I paid $20 for rewarmed columns, basically.

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  3. I am very interested in what you write here. I do a lot of deconstructing of columns, and used to do more of Bill Simmons deconstructing, so reading what you write is interesting to me. I actually thought about doing Bill's book or a few chapters, but I gave that thought up after 3 seconds of thinking about it. I'm glad someone tackled it. At least to give us something to think about.

    Bill has a ton of goodwill in the bank with his readers. There are some good reasons for that, and then some not-so-good reasons. I notice in a lot of his writing he will get the reader to quickly accept an assumption which proves his point. Most people don't look at the assumption with a critical eye.

    Bill is like that popular junior high kid, but I have a feeling he may lose some of that goodwill as he moves more and more away from the idea of being "just a guy and your friend like you writing about sports in a humorous manner" to "wealthy sports writer who knows a ton of famous people and now runs his own web site." I'm interested to see how his move from writer to proprietor of a site, albeit under the nice umbrella of ESPN.com, affects his readership. It probably will gain him some older readers and lose him some younger readers, so I bet it evens out.

    He is now the opposite of the person we all enjoyed in the beginning. He's not an outsider talking and writing like your buddies, but an insider talking with famous people whenever possible.

    I read a few negative reviews of his book, but the let their dislike of Bill color their review, which annoyed me. Argue with him on the merits, which is what I think you are trying to do. The one thing that bothered me about the book, though it was entertaining, is I felt I had read similar stuff by him before and really I couldn't handle another reference to pornstars or strippers. It made me wonder if he really does dislike women.

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  4. Have you considered that Boston has more hall of famers than st Louis even though the two teams might be similarly talented is because Boston won more championships and hall of fame voters put a lot of value on championships. Player x could be just as good as player y only because player x played on a better team that won more championships he is more likely to be voted in the hall of fame.

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  5. I don't know if using the number of HOF players may be the best credentials. I think something like Win Shares or Win Shares per 48 is a better stat because it captures who was more talented during that particular year. A guy like Andy Phillips was on his last legs at 34 while playing for the Celtics, which is great to have a future HOF veteran on your bench but he's really isn't contributing in terms of providing actual basketball talent aside from intangibles. Same could be said for Arnie Risen, who was 32 that year and was on his way out of the league as he'd retire after the next year. Also, the Basketball HOF is kind of a flawed HOF to begin with since it based on college or you're contribution to the game as well and they kind of let lots of head-scratchers in to begin with, which leads me to my next point as BenHarding stated. Boston probably has more Hall of Famers since they've won more championships even though some players had marginal talent and just happened to enjoy the benefits of playing with Russell, Cousy, Sharman and Heinsohn. I always criticize people who think KC Jones was such as great player since he's a HOF, though he didn't put up the numbers to indicate that he was. I don't know, maybe it had to do with his college career at San Francisco winning some championships there but mainly it was because of his role players status on eight championship teams but does that warrant a HOF inductions – I don't think so, that goes for Robert Horry in this generation too. Anyways, I make that argument for Frank Ramsey, who was on that Celtics team and was a great role player but calling him a HOF is a bit of a stretch. Meanwhile, I think we can agree that Macauley and Pettit were HOF talents and Pettit was just as good as Cousy that year and could have equally won MVP, which again is a bit flawed since they usually give it to the player on the team with the most wins (BOS: 44 to STL: 34) and a slight factor in seniority (Cousy: 7th yr to Pettit: 3rd yr). Also, Chuck Share was a pretty good player, actually finished 15th in Win Shares with 6.7 and Coleman had a better season than Risen and Phillips that year too. McMahon was bad and Slater Martin's best days were over but he put up filler stats. Long story short though, Boston was still more talented and Bill was wrong to call it close but the Hawks were pretty damn good too.

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  6. Good call Mahad. Simmons is a classic overexaggerated, but to act like Risen and Phillip were more highly regarded and better than Share and Coleman during this season, just because they ended up as Hall of Famers, doesn't mean they were better in the given year. (hint, they weren't). This just leads you, the author to lacking some credibility and look like you are on a bashing train just because no one else has done it. Not to mention Simmons is a comedy writer anyway, and if you ever take his analysis as the best, most knowledgeable analysis or something like that, I think you severely miss the whole point of his writing. He's an entertainer who made it big, but he's still just offering opinions from a fan perspective, and that should never be forgotten.

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  7. Wilt scored 62 in game against Russell. Over 50 five times. Wilt pulled down 55 rebounds in a game against Russell. Nuff said.

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  8. Individual talent and career accomplishments are less important than team cohesion and efficiency when it comes to winning. Look up the Golden State Warriors vs. the Washington Bullets in 1975. The 50s-60s Celtics were probably the best team ever, maximizing the effectiveness of every player. They stayed together, played together, and won together. Doesn't mean Russell was better than Chamberlain as an individual player.

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  9. You cant throw in the playoffs as an excuse either, because Wilt scored a High of 100 points in a playoff game, yet bill had more rings, years and better stats so one game in the playoffs isn't going to change anything.

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