Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Wilt versus Russell, Part Five: The Alternate Universe Edition

     Let's recap what I began in the previous post: Bill Simmons thinks, when comparing Wilt's supporting cast to Russell's, that it's a wash. On paper it doesn't look that way, but the 76ers had challenges that the 76ers didn't in the form of the big midseason trade. So in my attempt to justify Simmons' assertion, I recast the 1965 season in a way that saw Wilt Chamberlain start the season as a Sixer. And because he did so in this alternate universe, I reasoned that Philly would have had a better record; to get there, I just improved their luck in the close games. In this universe, Wilt Chamberlain had one Hall-of-Fame teammate; in the alternate, Chet Walker has recieved the honor due, and thus giving Wilt two HOF teammates. (Russell had four that season, but never mind)

And now, the 1965 season in an alternate universe:


     Yet again, I am amazed (not in the good way) by Simmons’ claims. I moved a few beads around, bumped Philly from 40 to 44 wins, turning their Point Differential positive in the process – and they’re eighteen games behind Boston. If I had tripled those four wins, Philly would still have finished 10 games back. Let’s look at this from another angle:


Again, that's counting Chet Walker as a Hall-of-Famer, which leads me to this:

In the 1964-65 season, Boston played a total of 19,275 player-minutes. 47.7% of those minutes were played by Hall of Famers, minus Russell.
In the 1964-65 season, Philadelphia played a total of 19,275 player-minutes. 24.8% of those minutes were played by Hall of Famers, minus Wilt.

     Remember, Simmons’ thesis is that the talent level on the 1965 Celtics was basically even with that of the 76ers. In an alternate reality where Wilt Chamberlain began the year as a Sixer with HOF teammates Hal Greer and Chet Walker, and when Philly takes care of business against the NBA bottom-feeders, the 1965 Philadelphia 76ers are still waaay behind the Celtics. Matter of fact, no other team is in the same area code – not in this universe, nor in the other one.

Many of you aren’t convinced by my reasoning. You believe that the regular season is irrelevant, an unreliable indicator of the strength of a given team. Well, my next post will address this very objection.

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