Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Debunking the Debunking: Finishing Up Myth #3

     I’m still not done with Myth #3. Let’s go back to the quote about playoff production:

“Hmmmmmmm. Russell’s numbers jumped and Wilt’s numbers dipped dramatically when there was money on the line, even though Wilt was routinely his team’s number one scoring option and Russ was number four or five.”

     I already knocked over the first part of that quote, but the second part deserves discussion as well. You see, I’ve watched a lot of playoff basketball, and the number one option actually has a hard job. Yes, he’s going to see the ball more, but the defenses are tougher than they are in the regular season, and those defenses are all game-planning to stop that guy. True, sometimes the game plan is to let the primary scorer get his while clamping down on everyone else, but Wilt Chamberlain was double and triple-teamed practically his whole life. I’m only guessing here, but I don’t think playoff teams were letting Wilt get his. (I’m also guessing here that “don’t let the other guys beat you” is a relatively recent strategy) If my conjecture is accurate, then options two, three, and four should have an easier time of things, and I have witnessed this happen in playoff games. One example from my favorite team: Avery Johnson. A left-hander from Louisiana, undersized for his position (sound familiar?), Johnson was basically dared to shoot open jumpers in playoff games.
     Simmons seems to think Russell had a tougher job getting his numbers in the playoffs than Chamberlain did because of their respective roles. I think it’s a push because secondary offensive options often end up with open looks that primary scorers don’t usually get.
     Let us recall that this Myth #3 is: “Statistically, Wilt crushed Russell”. But just a page and a half into it, Simmons says, “So yeah, by any statistical calculation, Wilt Chamberlain is the greatest season player in NBA history. I concede this fact. For the playoffs? Not so great.”
     So why did we do this? Why did Simmons shoehorn this myth into chapter two?
     Then, as if out of nowhere, Simmons' breakdown of Myth #3 drifts into strange waters. It was one thing when Russell and Chamberlain were getting all the credit/blame for their teams wins and losses, but at least Simmons was assigning hard data to each man. But starting on paragraph two of page 69 through page 74, Simmons genuflects at the Altar of Anecdotes. Which is baffling, since, wasn't Bill trying to debunk the myth that Wilt crushed Russell statistically?
     Here now, your Anecdote Typhoon:
  • "…Wilt famously swatted shots like volleyball spikes for dramatic effect, Russell deflected blocks to teammates for instant fast breaks…"
How the hell did Boston ever lose a game if Russell could do this at will? The implication here: Wilt always blocked the ball out of bounds, and Russell and the Celtics always recovered Russell's blocks. The second implication: Wilt's blocks were meaningless. Let's pretend Wilt always did spike the ball out of bounds. Okay, but he probably blocked at least a few shots with the shot clock run down under three seconds. It's often hard to get a score in that situation.
  • "Opponents eventually gave up challenging Russell and settled for outside shots…"
Then how did Russell block so very many shots? You'd think that if they really did give up, Russell would have been blocking a lot fewer after a couple of years in the league.
  • "Boston's scorers…found themselves in the dream situation of worrying about scoring and that's it."
I'm sure that's it. Whenever Boston played Cincinnati, Cousy or Sam Jones just said, "Hell with this. I don't have to do shit to this Oscar guy, Bill will just block the shot." Johnny Havlicek just let Elgin Baylor go wherever he wanted because, fuck it, Bill's got him. Because pro basketball players are just that stupid and, apparently, eager to piss off their head coach by not making an effort.
  • "[Wilt] wasn't a natural jumper like Russell (emphasis mine)…[and] many opponents learned to time those jumps and float shots over his considerable reach."
Are you getting the idea that Simmons wants us to believe that Russell blocked many more shots than Chamberlain? I am. Never mind that in Tall Tales - a book cited by Simmons in TBOB - Earl Strom, who officiated during that era, says that Russell and Chamberlain were averaging "8 to 10 blocks a night for most of their careers." In the same book, legendary statistician Harvey Pollack estimated that Russell and Chamberlain averaged over five blocks per night in their peak seasons, and over four per game for their careers. If Russell did block more shots than Chamberlain, he didn't do it by much. If some players did learn to beat Chamberlain's shot blocking, they didn't do it too often if Strom and Pollack are to be believed.
  • "[Wilt would] stop challenging shots with four or five fouls even if he was hurting his team in the process. I'm not making this up. (Seriously, I'm not making this up.)"
We're going to discuss this in greater detail coming up, but you know how Bill Simmons proves that he's not making it up? He offers a quote by John Havlicek. Simmons then footnotes this quote with another Havlicek quote, this one gushing about Russell's awesomeness on defense. Bill seems to believe that the old Celtics can be counted on to provide honest, sober, unbiased evaluations on the Russell/Chamberlain debate. It's really sad, honestly.
  • "In the end, Russell's teams won championships and Wilt's teams lost them."
I give Simmons credit for finally noting that Russell and Chamberlain actually have teammates, but Wilt won championships, too. His 1967 76ers and 1972 Lakers went 68-13 and 69-13, respectively. Chamberlain was on one team that won during the Russell era; Bob Pettit was on the other one, and Pettit's Hawks beat an injured Russell.

Here is a list of awesome basketball players who won fewer championships than Wilt Chamberlain:

Neil Johnston, Dolph Schayes, Paul Arizin, Bob Pettit, Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Oscar Robertson, Earl Monroe, Elvin Hayes, Bob Lanier, Pete Maravich, Artis Gilmore, Julius Erving, George Gervin, Alex English, Adrian Dantley, Bernard King, Moses Malone, Dominique Wilkins, Clyde Drexler, John Stockton, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing, Reggie Miller, Allen Iverson

Here is a second list of awesome basketball players who won as many championships as Wilt Chamberlain:

Walt Frazier, Willis Reed, Dave Cowens, Bill Walton, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson

These lists, while not comprehensive, illustrate that while Wilt certainly could have won more championships, achieved a hell of a lot on an individual AND team level.

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